Folks: Time for a little history lesson. WMD: the point is missed in WMD discussion, the problem was, and is still, certain outcome, uncertain time line, original pre-Iraq, certain minimum 3 way nuclear war, Iran, Iraq, Israel, plus potential of additional players. Saddam swallowed the Kuwait bait, we did in very few days what Iran was unable to even begin in several years. The technology has not diminished any since.
The timetable now tighter. North Korea now admitted test of Fusion trigger should be a serious wake-up, since Iran, from TRR 5 mw reactor, has now two fuel cycles, 40+ years of 0.6 kg element 239 annual byproduct production, and chemical separation technology undeclared was found IAEA @ 2003 unclass Senate report? Israel "discussion" recent with CCCP concerning the contract explosive lens technicians no small point, nor is possible kh 55? alleged transfers, Artic Sea again? moving the key bail jumper out of Cyprus of the recent spy transfer, without debriefing??!! Protecting???? I digress.
last fal Qum find 6800 gal heavy water, Iran mines Lithium. Google US Nuclear test Bravo, for casing details, strange coincidence @ 20%, same level Iran now producing,
Meanwhile, CIA is officially clueless, feeding MSM stories of how Iran is 2 years away from a nuclear bomb. That may be true. 95% HEU version. It's the 2nd gen, 239 version bravo class that's not discussed.
Things have changed since early 1950's
Consider: now we have computers replacing slide rules. Now we have digital electronics.
Now we have helpful neighbors (russian) helping design the necessary explosive lenses.
Also neighbors (North Korea) with testing platform, and the airborne isotopes were either a fusion trigger or incredible careless use of very badly cracked and leaking fuel rods.
Now we have CNC machining centers.
Maybe someone is going to get a very serious wake up call. Iran desire to purchase 4 devices from Pakistan reported rebuffed, but if all they need is 4 to ensure the return of the Imam from the 7th century well, very possible they already have ALL the fixings for perhaps that many Bravo class.
But here is some hope:
The 1-2 thousand top money makers in Iran have accumulated enough, bypassing the embargo serious money, to retire very comfortably out of the country. If most "retire" and go, Iran will undergo regime change, without the terrible for all price likely to be paid.
4 weapons: possible targets are Israel, Germany, Britain, US.
2 fuel cycles @ 25 kg? element 239? question of recovery % not minor, unknown here.
There is in the Muslim lore the dicturm:" Islam will survive so long as mecca survives"
I'd like to vote on a new, very warm, glass version of mecca with a built in for several hundred years, a glass clad warranty of cancer for only the price of visiting.