[MUSIBIKE]

Washington has given Tehran until September to respond to an offer of dialogue. The hope is that diplomacy can bring Iran back from the brink. The test will be whether it is prepared to abide by international safeguards. These would allow it to build a legitimate civilian nuclear programme, which it is doing with Russian help at Bushehr. But it would mean stricter supervision of its more suspect facilities at Natanz and Arak.

If Iran chooses not to engage with Washington and rejects a negotiated deal on its nuclear facilities then America, Britain and France will press for harsher United Nations sanctions against Tehran. These will take effect only if Russia and China, who hold the right of veto at the UN Security Council, drop objections to tighter economic measures.

At this point the future looks bleak. If diplomatic efforts fail and if Iran presses ahead with its ambitions, then the Middle East may be headed for the most serious conflict in decades. Israel’s policy is that it prefers a diplomatic settlement but that “all options remain on the table”. By that it means using force to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, probably with air and missile strikes. Iran would be likely to respond and within days the region would threaten to become embroiled in a terrible war.

Many doubt that Israel would be prepared to take such a dangerous step, particularly since experts believe that Iran has the ability to rebuild the key uranium enrichment site within two to three years.

Who runs Iran in the coming months and years is not just a matter for Iranians.

This is now a global issue