Extreme Drought Rapidly Expanding

Extreme Drought Rapidly Expanding

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The 2012 drought disaster is rapidly worsening in severity, especially over the nation's agricultural heartland, according to the latest weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report, released Thursday.

While the area covered by the overall drought grew only slightly, the intensity increased alarmingly. Nationally, the percentage of the country in "extreme" to "exceptional" drought – the two worst categories on the scale – jumped from 13.53% to 20.57%. In other words, another 219,000 square miles was added to the area in extreme drought – an area slightly larger than the states of California and New York combined.

The overall percentage of the country in drought grew for the tenth week in a row, inching up from 63.54% to 63.86%.

Climate Context

Bryan Fuchs, a climatologist at the National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, Nebraska, spoke with Stephanie Abrams on Your Weather Today about the new report.

"Right now the year this matches up best with is 1988," Fuchs said. "That was the last real significant drought that hit the Corn Belt as significantly as this one."

In terms of the rain needed to end the drought, Fuchs said, "Each state is a little bit different as far as the deficits we're seeing. But in some areas the deficits we're seeing are 16 to 18 inches, and we just don't make those up overnight."

National Highlights

All percentage figures refer to the contiguous 48 states:

- The percentage of the country in "severe" drought (level 2) or worse set a new 21st-century high for the second straight week, rising from 42.23% last week to 45.57% this week.
- The percentage of country in "exceptional" drought climbed from 0.99% last week to 2.38% this week – a considerable jump, but still well below the levels in the 2011 Southern Plains drought.
- The percentage of the country in "abnormally dry" conditions or worse actually decreased slightly to 80.08%, compared to 80.75% a week ago.

State-by-State Highlights

- Extreme drought (level 3 or worse) expanded dramatically in Illinois, increasing from 8% last week to over 70% of the state this week.
- Likewise, in Nebraska, the percentage of the state in extreme drought exploded from less than 5% last week to over 64% this week.
- Just over one-third of Arkansas is now in exceptional (level 4) drought – the worst category – up from just 11% of the state last week.

Extreme Drought Rapidly Expanding - weather.com

Comments From Another Board

As a farmer I can tell you its much worse than the media is telling you. My cattle are going to market because there is no winter feed and while I still have pasture to feed the cattle the pond is going dry. This is a large pond 12 to 14 foot deep. I might have 4 foot of water left in a much smaller pool. What this means to you all? There has been much talk of a "tipping point" for this country. This drought may be just that thing. There is NO production in my region without irragation and there is NO irragation. Just wait till the price increase reaches the consumer that food inflation and the result of QE3 might just do it.

God save the Republic

Smokie
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Smokie,

We're in a similar boat. My sister and I have about twenty head (cattle) and we're trying to figure out how to spread them out a little so we can sell enough to feed the rest. We need to keep enough so that when prices are on the rise, we can make a buck, but we have to be able to feel all we keep.

In other news, I was working late last night, and driving home around 9:30pm. As I was cruising on a county highway between a couple corn fields, this rancid stench filled the air. I don't think I've ever smelled it before, but I knew what it was. The crops are dying, and the humidity is causing them to actually start to decompose. If that happens, the farmers won't even be able to cut it down for feed (corn leaves are yummy according to my cows). It's just going to rot in the fields and have to be cut down and tilled under.

This is bad, bad, bad! The media has finally admitted prices are going to rise, but they're trying to minimize the amount. I think they said 3 to 5 percent. No way. Once winter sets in, it's going to be at least 10 percent. The same amount of a working man's dollar won't buy as much food. The same babymomma's EBT credit won't buy as many twinkies and formula. It's going to hurt everyone. And with QE3... Smokie, you're right again, I fear... the prices for EVERYTHING will go up. If a gallon of milk is $8, it will surely stir the pot. Then a very divisive and destructive national election is taking place in November (about the time QE3 begins to trickle in, and the prices of food climbs past media "estimates")... combine that with possible anti-gun legislation and who knows what else.

It's definately a year to shore up supplies before winter!

Well that's interesting because while I was away last week I was browsing a news site (MSNBC I think) and they said that the farmers are weathering this drought better than the one a few years ago (I think in 2006?) when the rice and corn crops were affected. I'm still jet-lagged but I think the article was saying they were better prepared since last time or something along those lines.

True, however, that we should all consider stocking up on corn-reliant crops (aka meat) ***NOW*** while the prices in the supply chain are still cheap. We filled our deep freeze with meats and are working on stocking up on veggies and such before the price ripple hits. Meat in this area at least is still surprisingly inexpensive. Although since Ethanol fuel is mostly corn-reliant, that does mean fuel prices (and therefore EVERYTHING) in the supply chain is going to bump up in price. Can't wait for the Fall weather change this year!

Corn should be used for FOOD not ethanol. Exploit our vast natural resources & make the U.S. strong again.

USDA Alert: Half of U.S. Counties Designated Primary Disaster Areas; Financial Fallout “Intensifying”

The largest natural disaster in American history just went from bad to worse.
Sweltering heat and persistent drought across the country has ravaged crops to such extremes this summer that tens of thousands of farmers and ranchers are on the verge of financial ruin. The situation is so dire that it has prompted the US Department of Agriculture to declare more than half of America a disaster area.

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…more than half of all U.S. counties – 1,584 in 32 states – have been designated primary disaster areas this growing season, the vast majority of them mired in a drought that’s considered the worst in decades.

Counties in Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee and Wyoming were included in Wednesday’s announcement. The USDA uses the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor to help decide which counties to deem disaster areas, which makes farmers and ranchers eligible for federal aid, including low-interest emergency loans.

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Source: Seattle Times

Without the ability to harvest their crops, many farmers are finding it difficult to make good on loans they used to fund their operations. Cattle ranchers, who can’t find hay due to the drought and whose feed prices are skyrocketing, are also feeling the pinch.

An AgWeb discussion in early July involving small business and family farmers displayed their desperation, with many commentors indicating this summer’s drought is the worst they’ve ever experienced. Others reported their crops were dying and pleaded for rain.

That rain never came, and according to industry experts and officials at the USDA, conditions are now set to intensify and worsen.

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As of this week, nearly half of the nation’s corn crop was rated poor to very poor, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. About 37 percent of the U.S. soybeans were lumped into that category, while nearly three-quarters of U.S. cattle acreage is in drought-affected areas, the survey showed.

The potential financial fallout in the nation’s midsection appears to be intensifying. The latest weekly Mid-America Business Conditions Index, released Wednesday, showed that the ongoing drought and global economic turmoil is hurting business in nine Midwest and Plains states, boosting worries about the prospect of another recession, according to the report.

Creighton University economist Ernie Goss, who oversees the index, said the drought will hurt farm income while the strengthening dollar hinders exports, meaning two of the most important positive factors in the region’s economy are being undermined.

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Food supplies across the country – for animals and humans – are literally drying up.

This will undoubtedly lead to significant food price increases across the entire spectrum of the American diet – meat, grain, dairy, vegetables and fruit.

Tom Chatham of Project Chesapeake writes:

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Corn and soybean meal are staples in animal feed and the rising prices and drought conditions are forcing farmers and ranchers to sell off their herds for slaughter. This will cause a glut in the market over the short term and you may see lower meat prices as a result but this will only be temporary. By next year the prices of meat will rise as the supply of livestock reaches multi decade lows. Supply and demand will push prices higher as a result.

Larry Pope, chief executive of Smithfield Foods has recently given a dire warning. “Beef is simply going to be too expensive to eat. Pork is not going to be too far behind. Chicken is catching up fast.” He also stated that government regulations are going to make things even worse. Almost 40% of the U.S corn crop goes to make ethanol fuel. Pope said, “Its almost a government- mandated disaster here, which is distressing”.

He warned that meat prices will rise by “significant double digits“.

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For those with the ability to do so, we recommend putting away foods that your family eats regularly, and planning for at least a three to six month window of upward price pressure. Tess Pennington offers some drought preparedness tips:

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The price increases will be dramatic. Expect to see fewer grocery store sales, especially those great “loss leaders” we all love to take advantage of.

Prepare for this by stocking up NOW before the major price increases hit. For instance, purchasing bulk dried corn, corn meal, and a diverse supply of bulk meats before the prices rise. Pamper your garden and get every single ounce of produce you can squeeze out of it. Buy in bulk to take advantage of lower prices and preserve food for use this winter.

Make adjustments in your shopping and eating habits now to weather the upcoming food crisis.

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If you’ve got a freezer, load it up with as much meat as you can afford to buy. Package dry goods for the long-term and have a steady supply of beans, wheat (or flour), corn and rice on hand to dip into if prices do happen to jump. While we all hope for a rainy year in 2013 to get struggling farmers back on their feet and our prices at the grocery stores to affordable levels, taking measures today based on the credible information available to us can help save us from paying 30% or more in food costs over the course of the next several months.

While the idea of buying commodities at lower prices today may save us money, worst case scenario planning is always in order. A well stocked food pantry can help us supplement our diets for quite some time if we experience a drought similar to the Dust Bowl of the 1930′s, which was felt for three consecutive and particularly devastating years before things began to return to normal.


Author: Mac Slavo
Views: Read by 15,388 people
Date: August 2nd, 2012
Website: SHTF Plan - When the Shit Hits The Fan, Don't Say We Didn't Warn You.

USDA Alert: Half of U.S. Counties Designated Primary Disaster Areas; Financial Fallout "Intensifying"