The world of 2030: U.S. declines; food, water may be scarce
The world of 2030: U.S. declines; food, water may be scarce
The National Intelligence Council paints the picture of a world in which the U.S. is no longer the unquestionably dominant global player; individuals and small groups may carry out devastating cyber or bioterror attacks; oh, and food and water may be running short in some places.
The 160-page report is a great read for anyone in the business of crafting the script for the next James Bond movie, a treasure trove of potential scenarios for international intrigue, not to mention super-villainy. But the council took pains to say that what it foresees is not set in stone. The goal is to provide policymakers with some idea of what the future holds in order to help them steer the right economic and military courses.
"We do not seek to predict the future—which would be an impossible feat—but instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications," the report cautioned.
Other ideas the futurists reported: Global population will reach "somewhere close to 8.3 billion people," and food and water may be running scarce in some areas, especially regions like Africa and the Middle East.
"Climate change will worsen the outlook for the availability of these critical resources," the report said. "Climate change analysis suggests that the severity of existing weather patterns will intensify, with wet areas getting wetter, and dry and arid areas becoming more so."We are not necessarily headed into a world of scarcities, but policymakers and their private sector partners will need to be proactive to avoid such a future."
What about America in 2030? The report predicts that the U.S. "most likely will remain 'first among equals' among the other great powers." But "with the rapid rise of other countries, the 'unipolar moment' is over and Pax Americana—the era of American ascendancy in international politics that began in 1945—is fast winding down."
Also, "Asia will have surpassed North America and Europe combined in terms of global power, based upon GDP [Gross Domestic Product], population size, military spending and technological investment," the report said.
It also suggests that Islamist extremism may be a thing of the past in 2030. But that doesn't mean small groups won't try to wreak havoc.
"With more widespread access to lethal and disruptive technologies, individuals who are experts in such niche areas as cyber systems might sell their services to the highest bidder, including terrorists who would focus less on causing mass casualties and more on creating widespread economic and financial disruptions," said the report.
Four "megatrends" shaping the world were cited: growing individual empowerment; diffusion of power; major shifts in demographics; and rising demand for food, water and energy.
The report also sees the potential for "black swan" shocks to the system. These include: a severe pandemic; faster-than-forecast climate change; the collapse of the European Union; the collapse of China (or its embrace of democracy); and a reformed Iran that abandons its suspected nuclear weapons program. They also include a conflict using nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons, or a large-scale cyber-attack; solar geomagnetic storms that may knock out satellites and the electric grid; or a sudden retreat of the U.S. from global affairs.
[Only registered and activated users can see links. Click Here To Register...]
Black Blade: May I suggest "Soylent Green"?
my crystal ball says--
in 20 years irrigating in the plains will come to a halt due to the low levels of ground water. now if this just happens to fall on the years of the drought cycle were going to see a great depression style dust bowl.
the problem is that that part of the USA will no longer sustain agriculture as we know it till the next climate change. and that could be even worse. if were lucky the water will run out on the wet side of the cycle --that might extend the problem for a decade or so--but sooner or later it is going to happen.
the USA if we keep printing $$$ and borrowing $$$ then printing to borrow --what is the US dollar going to be worth?
on peak oil -- i don't think there is going to be all that much of a oil shortage. the problem is going to be no money to buy gas/oil with.
every time the dollar loses value fuel prices go up regardless of how much fuel there is.
we may well see some kind of global economic crash, every market is running on stock market type of "paper" --while paper is liquid it is also easy to paper over problems.
with the investment banking "boom" every politician has got their hands on an investment bank. the reason is they can for all practical purposes "print their own money"--due to the way they value and borrow against this paper.
and we have massive ecological problems with the worlds oceans --shell fish are dieing off , the oceans could be fished out of fish in the next 40 years if not sooner.
all these things could well happen at a time when the worlds population is nearly double of today .
more people, more demand for energy, more demand for food, far less food production and here in the USA and most of the developed world a very over borrowed --over printed and over spend economy that is trying to come out of the hole--
yea the USA is going "third world" with all the third world problems that come with it.
were also going to see many of the other developed countries crash right along beside the USA.
the USA and most of the developed world are doing the same things --thinking short term and looking for that easy button.
we got to start thinking long term --but every politician and industry leader is wanting a short term profit. that will just dig the hole deeper.
A good example of the "short term sightedness" of oil producers:
It is reported that the US is the new Saudi with respect to the natural gas (200 year plus supply at current usage). The same report mentioned that check valves had to be reversed on major piplines to enable the EXPORT of the new "surplus". Seems to me if they export this gas, we won't have a 200 year supply, and thus will be in the same boat after short term profits are realized.
Use of the finite underground water resources seems to parallel the above. Using the water to create a surplus to export seems foolish. Sustainability should be the goal. If the rest of the world is hungry, perhaps they should live where God waters the grass.
that is very true.
and guess who is going to be getting all those US oil exports?
the same people the big "O" calls when his checks are a bouncing!
this oil may be the ticket for obama to get china to co-sign the note--
|All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:58 AM.|
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2013, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright ? 2004 - 2006 Gunco.net