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DADDY WARBUCKS
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What Really Happened?:
Survey Results Debunk the Myths of 2004 Election
JIM MCLAUGHLIN JOHN MCLAUGHLIN
TIMES-DISPATCH GUEST COLUMNIST
Wednesday, November 24, 2004

Washington. The theories from liberals and the old media as to why John Kerry lost the presidential election reconfirm that they just don't understand the values and priorities of middle-class America. While they seem to believe that most Americans who voted for President Bush are idiots, religious zealots, or both, the results from our post-election survey show the American people gave President Bush a clear victory for practical and common-sense reasons. They voted for George W. Bush because they trusted his character and were more in agreement with him on the two most important issues of the day: fighting the war on terror and improving the economy.

In spite of what liberals and the media may say, the voters made an educated and rational decision in giving President Bush a clear victory on Election Day.

Myth #1: The American people don't like George W. Bush or his policies.

Fact: A clear majority of voters (54 percent) approves of the job Bush has done as President.

Ironically, President Bush's favorable rating was lower than his job approval rating. This means people voted for Bush because they believed he was doing a good job and agreed with him on the most important issues of the day, which were keeping America safe from terror and improving the economy.

Myth #2: American voters didn't vote for Bush; they were voting against Kerry, and didn't want to change horses during a time of war.

Fact: 83 percent of Bush voters said they were voting for George W. Bush; while only 11 percent said they were voting against John Kerry. The leading responses as to why Americans voted for Bush were because they felt he was doing a good job and they agreed with him on the issues.

In contrast, only 52 percent of Kerry voters were voting for John Kerry and 42 percent said they were voting against Bush.

Myth #3: George W. Bush won only because of gay marriage.

Fact: Less than 2 percent said gay marriage was the most important issue in deciding their vote for President. Terrorism/war in Iraq (38 percent) and economic issues (26 percent) were the most important issues to voters. Nearly two-thirds of the voters said either terrorism/war or economic issues were the most important in deciding their vote. In fact, gay marriage was the least important issue among voters in deciding their vote for President. Overall, 12 percent mentioned a moral issue as being the most important in deciding their vote.

Myth #4: John Kerry beat George W. Bush in the debates.

Fact: By a 50-percent-to-47-percent margin, voters were more likely to agree with President Bush on the issues in the debates.

While the liberal media and the national Democrats seemed to be scoring the debates on style points (and on a scale biased against the President in the first place), the American people were more concerned about the issues and substance, and said they were more likely to agree with Bush on those issues.

Myth #5: George W. Bush lost moderate Republicans because he was too extreme.

Fact: Bush beat John Kerry among Republicans 92 percent to 8 percent. There was virtually no such thing as a Kerry Republican in this election. Bush received 85 percent of the moderate Republican vote.

Myth #6: Okay, George W. Bush was too extreme for women.

Fact: Bush tied John Kerry among women, and he won decisively among men. There remains a marriage gap, as Bush does significantly better among married voters. In addition, Bush had a clear advantage among married women over Kerry.

Myth #7: Conservative ideology hurts George W. Bush and Republicans.

Fact: The conservative-issue philosophy is the biggest strength of the Republican Party.

Self-described conservatives (40 percent) outnumbered liberals (22 percent) by nearly a 2-1 margin, and those conservatives voted overwhelmingly for George W. Bush. Moderates accounted for 34 percent of the electorate. Bush's advantage among conservatives clearly helped propel him to victory.

Myth #8: All the undecided voters will go for John Kerry.

Fact: George W. Bush received a large share of the undecided voters. Bush received the majority of the vote from early deciders, and shattered the hypothesis that undecided voters would overwhelmingly break against an incumbent President by garnering a large share of late deciders.

Myth #9: The American people know the Bush tax cuts hurt the economy.

Fact: According to CNN's exit polls, by a 40-percent-to-33-percent margin, voters believe the Bush tax cuts were good for the economy over those who said they were bad for the economy.

Myth #10: Americans like John Kerry's economic policies better than George W. Bush's.

Fact: Kerry's class-warfare strategy backfired, and voters agreed more with George W. Bush when it came to the economy.

While Kerry won with households earning less than $20,000 a year, he lost decisively among middle-class households earning over $20,000 a year. Whenever a politician such as Kerry talks about raising taxes, even when he says it will affect only the wealthy, middle-class Americans hold onto their wallets.

Myth #11: Americans oppose the war in Iraq, and they don't believe the war in Iraq has made them safer.

Fact: Americans believe the war in Iraq is making them safer here at home. In CNN's exit poll, by 50 percent to 46 percent, voters approved of the President's decision to go to war in Iraq, and 54 percent believed the war in Iraq is keeping us safer here at home.

Myth #12: George W. Bush's pro-life position hurts him politically.

Fact: Among single-issue abortion voters, those who said abortion was the most important issue in deciding their vote for President, Bush won overwhelmingly 85 percent to 15 percent.

Myth #13: George W. Bush can't compete with John Kerry and the Democrats when it comes to the Latino vote.

Fact: Bush received 42 percent of the Latino vote according to the CNN exit poll.

Myth #14: Self-proclaimed Catholic John Kerry will overwhelmingly win the Catholic vote over George W. Bush.

Fact: Bush won among Catholics, 51 percent to 49 percent.

* Jim and John McLaughlin are founders of McLaughlin & Associates, a public opinion and survey research company based in New York and Washington.


This story can be found at: http://www.timesdispatch.com/servle...ticle/RTD_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=103177
 

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Code name: Felix
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Myth # 15, Puerto Ricans always vote Democrat.

This year I spoke to some Puerto Ricans who married into my family, none of them was voting for Kerry, they claimed he was full of hot air.
 

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DADDY WARBUCKS
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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
aviator said:
Myth # 15, Puerto Ricans always vote Democrat.

This year I spoke to some Puerto Ricans who married into my family, none of them was voting for Kerry, they claimed he was full of hot air.
Well, two of them anyway.
 

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"In contrast, only 52 percent of Kerry voters were voting for John Kerry and 42 percent said they were voting against Bush."

I think that's the key to why Kerry lost. Kerry came up with swell reasons not to vote for Bush, but I don't remember his ever stating a reason why one would want to vote for him instead. He was an astonishingly weak candidate. That he did as well as he did rather astounds me.

And this is coming from someone who voted for him. Albeit while holding my nose.
 

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DADDY WARBUCKS
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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
And this is coming from someone who voted for him. Albeit while holding my nose.[/QUOTE said:
Apparently you did not hold it tight enough or long enough.
 
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